Guerillas the Chinese helped founded, have supported and provided arms to have become more successful than they wanted. This development clearly confirms that Chinese are worried the Junta will collapse and Burma will fall into chaos, without a central authority but under disparate armed groups with constantly shifting territories due to rivalries amongst them. They need a central government in control of the country whom they can manipulate in order to implement their strategic interests in and through Burma. It seems their support for guerilla groups have been too successful and the situation is spinning out of their grasp.

First, we saw China appeal for regional unity in helping bring about stability in Burma 12 days ago, a break from its usual go-alone stance. Now they are blocking border trade that guerillas partially depend on for their revenue to bend them to Chinese will. The Chinese still have more leverage that they haven’t used yet of course. And it is interesting they are also pressuring the Wa who are not active participants in the civil war, but possesses the largest army amongst the guerillas with 30,000 soldiers (bigger than Sweden, Hungary or Portugal).

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