Does Ukraine need to give up some land (Crimea) at the end? Or is there something else for Putin to save face like what (?) they did with Wagner?
Does Ukraine need to give up some land (Crimea) at the end? Or is there something else for Putin to save face like what (?) they did with Wagner?
Because if you humiliate a delusional, crazy narcisst, he will not just give up. He will double-down. And this crazy narcisst has atomic weapons.
using nukes by putin would be for him just a very elaborate suicide and this runs counter to his primary objective, sustaining political power in russia
i’d like to remind you that putin pulled shit like this three times already and three times it worked: let’s invent some sufficiently external enemy, put on them blame of all evil in the world, then invade them and propagandize this as a great victory. this is how putin got presidency in the first place (1999 bombings and second chechen war); this is how he got support of nationalists (invasion of georgia in 2008 and of ukraine in 2014). he tried it again, because people didn’t like how pandemic and economic crisis turned out, so he wanted to distract them with what he expected would be quick victory; but at this point he was so high on his own propaganda that he couldn’t predict clearly what will happen. almost a decade of preparations for exactly this scenario and (limited) western training and assistance also were a factor, of course
every day putin wakes up and can decide to withdraw but he chooses not to. that’s because withdrawal involves taking massive L and the crowd that he panders to now, the same crowd that he carefully cultivated for decades doesn’t like this, they don’t tolerate weakness. so the only way war can end, is with collapse of current russian cabinet
taking few steps back and looking at the bigger picture, what can putin do?
he can’t afford to lose, because this sends him straight to hague
he can’t back down and withdraw, because this ends him politically
he can’t escalate conventionally, because he has very little to escalate with this way
he can’t use nukes, because there’s already nuclear bunker buster with his name or several, and in any case risks turning moscow into a flat pane of glass, which sounds suboptimal considering his primary objective
so if he can’t do that, what he can do? about the only option would be keeping war at this level or lower,
hoping foractively using propaganda apparatus to decrease western military aid and grinding through, trying to get ceasefire or maybe even capturing more territory and frame that as a propaganda victory. here it is elaborated in detail https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4Mutually assured destruction.
There’s no path for Putin to use nuclear weapons that doesn’t involve the utter annihilation of Russia. I would be willing to be that that will be a bright line for NATO, because once it’s clear that Putin will use nuclear weapons when he’s not getting what he wants, it’s clear that there’s no other choice that preserves independence other than retaliating with nuclear weapons.