Linux makes me forget I’m a narcissist
It won’t be a single year it’ll be many years, built entirely on something that has already happened (Proton)
Every year since the day I switched has been my year of the linux desktop
Year of the linux desktop since 2018 over here, linux server since 2002.
Linux desktop (well, laptop) since 2020, server since 2024
It comes true every time
2011 is my year of the Linux desktop then. Never stopped using Linux as my main OS since.
We joke but SteamOS could be a game changer just because of steam’s userbase.
It’ll take some time because they’d need to to outshine windows in every way, including ease to use and all the stuff wayland forgot to implement. Right now it’s good enough for the deck, but they’d have to coaxe Arch into working for everyone.
Having a big customer base you can market to could legitimately open up Linux to desktop as a serious market share.
Even 15 years ago, DEs were pretty solid along with software. It was the lack of OEMs selling hardware that ran Linux along with Microsoft’s monopoly that kept it that way.
Of course if you are brave enough, you can always try it yourself with Nobara or Bazzite, but having Valve put a dedicated team behind their own distro would be very appealing.
Honestly steamdeck plus tpm module requirement for windows 11 is making me give a serious attempt to Linux for the new year. I do a very good job of taking care of my tech, it lasts decades.
I find it infuriating I have to change due to arbitrary OS decisions. I could’ve held onto my original pixel for quite some time, but it was no longer getting the security updates.
I feel like with the hardware requirements linux might see another bump come October
That’s actually the same reason I switched to Linux. I thought it was stupid that I would have to upgrade my hardware just to use the latest WindowsME. Switching to Linux back then. Let me enable all the new textures for Everquest. With Windows my system wasn’t performant enough. I though it stupid and I had perfectly good hardware that still ran for several more years just fine. The TPM thing is absolute B.S. and worse then why I switched.
Explorer being ridiculously slow even on a fairly fresh install with the addition of popup ads for black ops/MSFS was enough to make me finally jump over the fence a few weeks ago.
I still have to dual boot for certain games and programs but I had enough of windows being my default environment
Honestly I think SteamOS is the crowbar forcing open the Desktop space. Microsoft’s dominance in the desktop space has been with Normies where they can use the power of their purse to maintain their position. Normies don’t care what OS they run. Normies just want the computer to “do the thing” that they need done. Console gaming is a great example of that. None of those gamers care what OS they run and they know nothing about it. If you look at IoT, Windows is free in that space, yet Linux dominates the market by about 80%.
Historically if a big volume OEM sells a PC they are required to sell a Windows license if they want to take advantage of Microsoft’s volume licensing discount. If you are selling 400 dollar and even 800 dollar laptops, a 100 dollar license is a huge chunk of the cost. You have no choice but to take the volume licensing discount as manufacturer. Especially if you also compete for government contracts. The knock-on effect, these OEMs will have to spend money on Windows engineering efforts for each of their devices. That’s drivers, software, and testing. And when you are competing on volume, that doesn’t leave much left over profit to have engineering efforts for a second or third operating system.
The kicker for Microsoft, Microsoft waved the license for Windows on devices with screens smaller than 9" in 2014. Which means, the new Lenovo Steam version should come with SteamOS. The Steam version will likely be the more popular version of the Legion Go S. Other OEMs will see that and begin to offer a Steam version of their device. That all means engineering efforts for Linux on all the handhelds. The same thing for Steam consoles, although I wonder how the 9" rule will apply. Game devs are supporting SteamOS more and more. The knock on effects will eventually lead to OEMs no longer taking the volume licensing discounts. You will see Linux machines in the big box stores, especially when these OEMs are spending money to support Linux for the console.
Microsoft doesn’t dominate any space other then the Desktop where they’ve had vendor lock’in for 30 years. The writing is on the wall. They are losing the handheld space and soon they will be #4 in the console space. Microsoft better have something big soon or pandora’s box will be opened.
If you are selling 400 dollar and even 800 dollar laptops, a 100 dollar license is a huge chunk of the cost.
Gonna note that, on those rare occasions I have the funds to madly research the most optimal PC build I can every like…7+ years…the “Oh man, forgot the OS is another $100+!” Always felt like such an insult!
Whelp, now with OpenSUSE Tumbleweed I’ll never have to worry about that again. :)
Yeah that extra Microsoft tax is a killer. Plus, you’ll notice your systems seems new and snappy for the life of the hardware, unlike Windows. Where your system gets slower and slower every year. I used a Lenovo Yoga 2 Pro with Ubuntu until a couple years ago. It was great until I just needed a ton more ram and tons of cores for my dev project. I basically out grew the system, it still works great, fast and snappy. Gave it to my cousin who uses it as a daily driver.
I’ve heard good thing about Tumbleweed. I’m sure that will keep your system feeling fast and new for life of the hardware.
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025 is the year of linux desktop!And the big question is: Which will happen first; Linux being adopted by the masses or fusion becoming a viable power source?
Easy: Neither. Next question
The only markets Linux doesn’t Dominate are the Desktop and console space. The only thing holding back Desktop domination is Microsoft and it’s vendor lock-in strategy. It says a lot when Microsoft has to use the power of their purse in order to maintain their position. Even Linux dominates in the IoT space with ~80% of the market, despite Microsoft having to make Windows IoT free.
Microsoft does not see Windows as a product since Ballmer left. It’s more of a liability, because you cannot sell it twice, and you cannot sell a Windows subscription. Windows still makes them just 10% profits, but selling cloud servers and office suite nets them 60% of their profits.
Microsoft IoT is not even a thing, the power of Linux IoT is that you strip everything from your kernel until your system runs on 32 MB RAM.
It’s going to happen (probably this year or next), but it’s going to be mostly Chrome OS and Steam OS.
I’m an accidental Linux adopter this year. I accidentally bricked a relatively new laptop by messing up an MSConfig setting, and since I didn’t have Windows restore discs, I just switched it to a Linux desktop.
I honestly didn’t know what to expect, but the laptop has been running really smooth since then. I didn’t have a huge Steam library to replace, so the only bummer has been one or two Windows/Mac only apps that I haven’t been able to find Linux replacements for yet. Otherwise, 8/10, would brick my laptop again.
Sick What distro u on? What are the programs? Happy to help find replacements or worste case cenario u can run em in a vm
Thanks, mate. I installed Mint because a couple threads I checked said it was probably the best for people with no experience with Linux. One program I was trying to find a replacement for is a Monte Carlo simulation add-on for MS Excel called SIPMath Modeler tools from probabilitymanagement.org. I just started using LibreOffice as a replacement to Excel, so honestly I haven’t checked out the add-on library yet. I’m not too worried about it yet since I have an older laptop that’s air gapped now and still running Excel 2016 if I absolutely need to run the program.
https://youtu.be/oUwX-JrAfVE?si=rSHuiPP13relt6iO
Just did a quick search and this video came up. Maybe it will help point you in the right direction?
I’ve never known any of my immediate circle of friends and family to have any interest whatsoever. Windows 11 has been the nail in the coffin for one, the steam deck has piqued the interest of another. Year of the Linux desktop is a pipe dream but any step towards greater adoption is a great thing.
I watch a few SteamDeck you tubers and they all have switched to Linux. One is waiting for SteamOS to finally drop. Which I can understand, I mean, he is a normie gamer and isn’t really looking to get into computers, just wants to play games. He sees SteamOS as a silver bullet, since he is problem free on his Steam Deck. Which just reiterates, normies don’t care what OS they run, they just want to do the thing they care about.
I wouldn’t say it’s a pipe dream either. 20 years ago, if I switched someone to Linux, they would eventually have a problem and switch back. Not because Linux was bad or anything like that. Now, if I switch someone, they just keep going with Linux. The year of Linux Desktop already came. It doesn’t dominate yet, but there are few niches that Linux doesn’t support, mostly the audio/art niche.
Thanks to the work Valve has done shoring up gaming support with Steam Deck, it will be for me. When Win10 support ends on October 14, 2025 I will end my final tiny bit of support for Microsoft: my desktop gamer.
Valve is a fucking case study on how to run a business in a capitalist system without capitulating to the system of shareholder controlled enshitification. Imagine how different the country would be if even 20% of our large companies had a similar buiness model.
Win 10 IoT LTSC is to 1/2032
7% marketshare is coming for 2025!
i cant even imagine ~1 in every 15 people using linux. that means we all have a chance of knowing someone else irl that uses it. :o
Way more likely that it turns into half of the people we know not even using desktop computing anymore.
Id be happy with that ngl
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I think it will but i recon it will take a while. Mint/vanilla os are pretty much ideal for the newbies. Ans steam os once it comes to desktop will be pretty good as well.
This image is from the early 00s
Ive been daily driving pop_os for a few months now and im never going back. I have a few friends very clearly curious asking me questions about usability and stuff, might convince them to dual boot at some point to test the waters so to speak.
#1 concern I hear from my circle is video game compatability, to which I saw ive not experienced many issues (and 0 that i couldnt fix) but i dont play modern triple A garbage notorious for issues on all systems, and at the end of the day if gamers never move to linux then support for it wont improve.
Games support is pretty good atm only issue is anticheat for triple a titles.
The only way we’ll know for sure if it’s the year of the linux desktop is when our deficient family and friends start asking us what sudo is.
So far . . it’s quiet.
I don’t think there is a world where Linux gains significant market share AND users care what sudo is. In order for Linux to be more mainstream, those kinds of details should not be the concern of laypeople. GUIs are what average people are able to stomach.
It’s an interesting thought. The idea of sudo is that people understand there are levels of permissions. That alone would be huge, and in 2025 that seems ridiculous.
What sudo is?
A bit like Akido but with some hari kari thrown in
It’s slow but it’s coming. My technically illiterate mom got a steam deck this year and hasn’t struggled with it at all.
