Just remember it wasn’t a vacuum prediction. There was also fearmongering about a terrorist attack on the Olympics too.

If you make every borderline conspiracy theory prediction eventually one may be correct.

‘Same dog with a different leash,’ says Che Guevara’s daughter about Trump’s victory in the US election

Telesur Aleida Guevara expresó preocupación por reciente actitud de Lula hacia Venezuela

There is something sickening about the way people jump at the chance to denigrate peripheral countries. Western sources suddenly regain all their credibility.

“Roasting” progressives & the mainstream press quickly turns into “very cool, Bloomberg is having a good day, I should repost this, it scans to me” and “AOC finally came to her senses”. Well the latter has slowly crumbled but it was funny watching the Charlie Brown punt attempts from my armchair.

I try to use left sources whenever I can and I regularly use Michael’ Roberts as he is the one that does the most accessible and frequent economic analysis on current events. We don’t quote MSM very often for analysis but often just for the current event data or fact. MSM will lie and have a horrendous bias on reporting.

But if Reuters reports Chinese official data on unemployment or something quoting how is that a problem? Often MSM is the only source on other countries but as long as they’re quoting official sources why do you care if its Reuters or AP?

If you’re sitting here waiting for an explicitly Marxist professional/academic/journalist to tell you of news events then you’ll post a comment a month maybe.

Here on the last week Russian food inflation where people were coping it was cherrypicking because it was MSM.

I was going to comment a much larger comment showing no actualy it is that bad. Here is readily available info from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations on the current 2024 rising global food inflation.

The current Russia situation is reported by many official sources.

TASS

According to statistics, food products in October rose in price by 1.23% month-on-month and by 9.03% year-on-year.

In particular, prices for oranges increased by 14.9%, lemons grew in price by 6.1%), price for potatoes went up 4.9%, onions and bananas grew in price by 4.4%), prices for cucumbers added 3.8%. Prices for apples and carrots decreased by 6.5%.

Rosstat latest data You can google translate yourself but the items are correct. Potatoes are 5% within a week you can reach the conclusion yourself. Картофель 104,68 - 167,43.

Yes the western MSM made a sensationalist headline.

No the reporting was indeed correct by all sources including the Russian government.

Some people want to do some extreme copium, yet if we said that Americans have to deal 10% food inflation in a year everyone would immediately agree its terrible and a doom scenario. Why is this not also true for neoliberal hellhole Russia?

The rest of my comment was going to be explaining why the Nabiullina/Russian CB is a piece of shit neoliberal in charge with no clue but it was too long as I’d have to explain why just mindlessly raising interest rates using shit phrases like “overheating” and “balanced growth” is just clown shit economic principles that will ruin the country. The neoliberal mainstream pursuit of a natural rate of employment, achieved through monetary policy is the key of what they’re thinking and its bullshit.

Also the key point I guess is Russian interest rates are once again at the historical high, yet for neolibs there is no admission of failure just double or tripple down. Same talking points, same decisions, then surprised when it doesn’t work.

I didn’t write it in the end because it was turning into a lesson of Marxism vs neoliberal principles yet again.

“It was stressed that Russia has always strictly complied with its contractual obligations in the energy sector and is willing to cooperate mutually beneficially if there is interest on the German side,” said the Chancellery.

Contractual obligations my fucking ass, what even is this shit, the neoliberal rules based order sucks and must be destroyed, but also we’re well known for following it and wouldn’t mind following it again? Signaling a fall back to the previous status quo is definitely a mistake no matter the rationale.

It is shit like this that exactly puts the entire legitimacy of BRICS as anti-imperialists into question.

They will abuse “mutually beneficial” all the way to hell. Surely you wouldn’t say shit like this in their first interaction after so long and in a crucial moment for both the US and NATO relations(Trump’s election). Surely Russia wouldn’t use the same Chinese conciliatory language to justify their rapprochement with the west after winning the war huh? Surely!

Learning all the wrong lessons, classic Putin.

Cinia said that a repair vessel is prepared to go to the site, and that the repair efforts have been started. The firm said it does not yet know how long it will take to fix the link, but adds that repair time for submarine cables is typically 5-15 days.

Ah yes the feared Russian retaliation to warn us about WW3 and definitely deserves to get them nuked in response.

Something that can be fixed by Friday.

China stopped publishing the official youth unemployment rate last year when it hit the record high and then they started publishing again with a new metric that excludes college students(use your own judgement on why). It was fluctuating between 13-21% between 2022-2023 and is now back at 17.6%.

This was discussed in brief by Michael Roberts on his China’s Third Plenun summary overall mostly positive data except in exactly this area, or you can read something like Sixth Tone’s reporting

You can compare the World Bank data estimate here I picked some countries, also here they use other official sources.

Is it that bad? but it is about on par with the worst EU countries(Italy, Sweden, Spain), generally higher than the EU average and generally far higher than Japan and Korea.

US is listed at 10% but fuck if US data is reliable at all. For what is worth its getting worse for some countries too UK is nearing COVID high, US is highest since 2021 etc.

Obviously Chinese economic growth, poverty reduction and wage growth are all far higher so its not to say that “oh Chinese youth are afraid of living in the slums” or something, at all. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the COVID era effects still being felt.

Even if the tide rises all boats there is social anxiety from being afraid of being left behind or taking the back seat. IMO understanding material conditions leads to things like crime is the most obvious thing surely, understanding why white cis male chuds do school shootings doesn’t mean you approve it.

CPC taking notes.

The consequences of applying what they’ve learned, look away. Consolation prize is Russia joined them with the same very common L too. Piece of shit BRICS grifters.

The issue is not really dedollarization here, there is no need to fixate on that.

Rather the fact this is further signs of Chinese integrating with western capital at the most critical juncture.

The part about Saudi Arabia trying to pivot into some sort of Hong Kong 2.0 is accurate as its one of the ways they hope to survival the oil crash. It is also part of the ME own internal struggle between the oil exporters to see who comes out on top. OPEC is doing production cuts and Oil is once again at the 2 year low. Saudi Arabia is rather trying survive by pivoting into financial speculation, putting it in competition with the UAE for example.

As reported 2 billion is quite literally nothing in the grand scheme so why bother at all? Because it signals a complete Chinese compromise with the western consensus. Its China being absurdly simplistic and trying to secure their own slice of the pie.

Major financial corporations are all moving to Riyadh’s financial center, just this year there is Goldman Sachs which was the first significant Wall St player just barely last month, HSBC, Rothschild. Even the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is opening a new office there. You can probably make a long list soon.

So both Chinese and the Western capital see the potential of Saudi Arabia realy becoming a financial hub(or simply don’t want to miss it) and China wants to secure good relations before its completely bought out by US interests. Yes they are that naive. Heck in this instance I’d go even further and saying there is absolutely acting as if their married to the devil. If they weren’t what would explain to us their previous deals and investments in Israel during the 2010’s and even earlier?

Its quite the epitome of trying constantly pandering about being an alternative to US imperialism and denouncing western crimes while simultaneously happily making deals with the worst enemies of the global south.

It is as bad as it sounds.

Promising to build more ports so that the same fascists farmers can export even more soybeans to China is definitely going to be one of the electoral strategies of all times.

Not sure how reliable that is given the pretty much apocalyptic dead internet era we’re living in specially now during the AI boom.

What exactly is twitter offering when everyone knows its full of bots already? When a significant amount of clout seekers often posting AI content too.

Twitter isn’t dead, but the reason advertisers left in the first place isn’t going to change overnight. Yes you can quote some random consultant’s speculation but this is more than likely the usual political speculation libs love to do rather than meaningful analysis of the economic situation.

Its almost as if they’re not talking about the US where lobbying is legal, if advertisers care so much then can pay congress for what they want already and if staying on twitter was profitable at all they would not have left. Its not clear why the speculation this will change overnight, it seems more like lib moral panic for me.

I disagree entirely by your reasoning Bolton would still be there.

We all know Trump isn’t just incompetent but extremely egotistical and he is already significantly older and probably not that far off from Biden’s coginitive decline.

Essentialy while some standard neocon might get in right now there is realy no reason to indicate this will be sustained for 4 years let alone to believe Trump was already planning around “neocons” having power as a compromise.

I doubt Trump even understands neoconservatism and neoliberalism.

Remember Hinkle here is the near perfect duplicate of Tucker Carlson blasting Trump for escalating with Iran. Only obviously Hinkle is far less influential. But if MAGA substantialy opposes this(for the dumbest reasons) its very likely Trump will flip flop.

I think this is the whole thesis why Trump was even considered possibly a better alternative. There is a very specific narrative angle where MAGA stands completely opposite to neoconservatism and that is Russia as an ally of white supremacy. In general neocons pushing the old Bush era war is entirely against this idea the US even got “allies” outside the liberal sphere in the first place. MAGA fundamentaly can’t reconcile having shit EU libs or turbo NATO heads as allies or even having the idea they’re the ones in charge.

Democrats and Biden made sure to ally themselves with neocons as Biden made sure to praise NATO and Israel, reminding us how much he loves it every god damn press meeting during the election.

Bad news specially if as predicted Brazil fucks themselves as Lula’s government is about to do with cutting social programs right before the crucial pre-'26 election cycle. Once Brazil is compromised BRICS will have no influence in the region, questionable as it already is since Cuba being a new “partner” member is not relevant yet.

Currently a big struggle within the Brazilian government along with massive progressive/left wing parties and unions pushing back. Its not even a victory to make things better which is the shit part, its always the usual fight to stop neoliberal ghouls from making things worse and in this case a completely suicidal blow to Lula’s re-election chances.

Cuba made the “partners” shortlist and these are not members yet(if ever), right now its not clear if partners get anything at all besides a membership card and a meme Putin coin even.

The way which they massively overuse bullet points and single paragraph sections , omg its so obviously AI its sad.

Kind of shocking to see this from a huge msm site like this because it reads worse than some random wordpress blog post from 2008 about [insert trending hobby here]. Its not just obviously AI, its made and edited by someone that quite clearly doesn’t give a shit too. AI is shit but you can get chatgpt to tell you something that isn’t 20 paragraphs and 2 bullet point sections.

Sanctions on BRICS already exist and they’ll continue regardless.

I think for now many of the social media/mil bloggers are saying the war will continue and Trump is mostly shit. Here Yuri Podolyak https://t.me/yurasumy/19005 Google TL

Will President Trump Achieve “Peace in Ukraine”: Positions of the Parties and the Experience of the DPRK…

Back during his election campaign, then presidential candidate Donald Trump said that he would quickly solve the problem of Ukraine and stop this war. And now he is the president and, as they used to say in my youth, “you have to answer for your words.” And so, already yesterday, the future key figures of his administration began to carefully test the waters in this direction, making various statements about their vision of solving the “Ukrainian problem.” If we isolate the main thing, then they understand it like this - freezing the conflict on the current front line, temporary non-acceptance of Ukraine as a member of NATO, peacekeepers in the buffer zone. In essence, the Trump administration is offering Russia yet another Minsk agreement. We already know the price of such “agreements.”

This is actually a respite before pumping Ukraine with NATO weapons in large quantities and, in the future, another attempt at revenge in our generation. Meanwhile, yesterday at Valdai, our president, answering questions about Ukraine, once again threw his vision of solving this problem to the other side. The West must accept Russia’s new borders. Moreover, given that the war continues and the “front is dynamic”, other possible expressions of war by citizens (if any) must also be taken into account in the future agreement. Also, literally the day before, it was once again emphasized that the remaining demands - neutral status, disarmament and denazification of the remnants of Ukraine … are not discussed. This must be part of the agreement.

Thus, we see that the positions of the parties (the US and Russia) on the issue of peace in Ukraine are still very different. And I would also like to remind you here that during his last term, Donald Trump already promised to “quickly resolve” the DPRK problem. And he really did it very actively and demonstratively. Only in the end, he was unable to reach a real agreement, and the DPRK is now a reliable ally of Russia.

But are you hyped for the Chinese century?

All it takes is for Trump to be mildly friendly towards China.

The DPRK deal is a sign Russia is confident they can go on this war for the long term, including the fact they’re potentialy agreeing to pivoting to Asia if necessary it would be stupid then to compromise on a war they’re massively winning right now.

Also keep in mind there are people further right from Putin that would seriously threaten the government if they fumble this war.

didn’t have support because he was seen as an idiot, selfish who was threatning the war goals with his petty shit. No matter the popular grievances against the MOD/military incompetence at the time, the bigger picture will always win.

But Putin taking some shitty deal right now is definitely going to be the wrong move that puts his own credibility on the line, you can’t talk about “denazification” or even dog whistle about conquest and then turn around and take this sort of compromise, not right now anyway.

I’m sorry dude, but please understand that the entire left, not just PT got absolutely crushed during the mayoral elections. If you know even some spanish I realy recommend turn on the auto subtitles and watch Jones Manoel(historian, Marxist-Lenist), here just on the first 5 minutes Jones Manoel analyzes the direction of the left in Brazil after the elections

And you’ll look at the results, one worse than the other, on the one hand, on the other, in the Brazilian northeast, there is a myth that the Northeast is progressive, that the Northeast is left-wing, that the Northeast is the barrier against fascism. In the Brazilian northeast, of the capitals, the extreme right only didn’t win two: Recife and Fortaleza, the extreme right and the traditional right, right? And even so, in Recife, you can’t call João Campos left-wing, right? We can develop this better, but this way it’s not a one.

In the northeast there was a huge advance in the traditional right and the far right with some very striking results, for example, Bruno Reis managed to be reelected in the first round with an overwhelming vote, being the fifth term of the PT in Bahia, right? The government, Bahia is 20 years old. You see, and the third striking fact that we can’t ignore is the result of the election in Porto Alegre and São Paulo, right? Rio Grande do Sul.

In the 103 largest cities in Brazil, where is the center of the political and economic population dynamics, what was the result? Left slash center left only won 10 city halls. The far right and the right won 93, it’s 93 to 10. You know, this is like making a football metaphor of losing to 7 to 1. Oh, I scored a goal, but we conceded seven. You see, 9 to 1 is actually the far right and the right won in 93 cities. Of the 103 largest cities in Brazil, which concentrate the majority of the population’s GDP, you see.

And then if we go making the cut by capitals the situation doesn’t improve I was here with the data it’s easy but I ended up losing it I found capitals There are 26 capitals right the PSD took five the MDB took five União Brasil took four the PL took four PP took two Podemos took two PT PSB Forward Republicans one of each When you will see the division in the 26 capitals there are 13 governed by the extreme right 2 by the left slash center left and 11 by the right and center right

it is worth saying one thing that is fundamental it is worth saying one thing see the president Luís Inácio Lula da Silva remained oblivious to the campaign knowing that it was Rota and admitting his very low capacity to transfer votes he was left out of the Municipal campaign so the government already admits that the President of the Republic does not have the capacity to effectively transfer votes and withdrew from the dispute so as not to stick the defeat to the presidency itself I think this says a lot about the direction of this so whoever calls this a Victory is deceiving themselves

Ok so its not just about economics even though its what we talk about here.

The main issue stems from the Dilma coup, the neoliberal governments since 2016 until now including Lula 2.0(Lula 1 in some ways and certainly Dilma were already neolibs but I digress). Among all the usual austerity measures is the most important one, the Constitutional Amendment of the Public Expenditure Cap.

This is the key the underlines any Brazilian government since 2016 and is the main issue the left and Lula needed to fight in order to not lose again.

This budget cap is one of the most insane pieces of legislation anywhere in the world. It mandates a 20 year freeze on spending. It does not recognize Brazil as a third world country that needs disproportionaly higher social spenditure to “catch up”.

But the key is it is incompatible with the long established constitutional mandated healthcare and education spending floor. Currently Brazil has a mandated floor of 15% and 18% for each.

So why both of these matter? The attack is currently coming together almost as if perfectly timed to coincide with the leftist in power. Its not like this is new though, from the beginning 8 years ago everyone knew eventualy the healthcare and education spending floor would be attacked.

The neoliberal financial market is currently attacking through high interest rates and inflation fearmongering and the left/Lula government is capitulating. Brazil looks at curbing health, education spending in fiscal package, sources say.

Government austerity means cutting social programs, worst case scenario perhaps even significantly gutting the public healthcare system(SUS). Ultimately this is political suicide. The left will be absolutely crushed in 2026 as the left was already completely crushed during the latest mayoral elections last month.

It is a warning that the Worker’s Party doesn’t care. The Brazilian mainstream left got a serious Lula worship problem. It realy is TINA but its clear from the recent elections this will be a crushing defeat.

Economically the bigger picture it means several things including the future prospect of a complete victory of the financial rentier capital class over the still relatively strong and rich agricultural exporting capitalists(beef, coffee, soybean both for US and China etc).

If this victory is confirmed its going to be far worse than Argentina. It means no BRICS or China relationship. It means a possible Venezuela invasion or worse.

So is it all just about Trump? Not realy, Trump’s victory is a financial market dream giving every excuse to shit on emerging market currencies.