CarmineCatboy2 [he/him]

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Joined 7 months ago
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Cake day: February 8th, 2024

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  • I contend that most Americans do not have an improved quality of life even with the imperialism: that value and wealth is retained by the PMC and bourgeoisie.

    I think it is self evident that the lion’s share of value is retained by the bourgeoisie, another much smaller share is afforded to the PMC and that the vast majority of americans benefit much less than they would had they any political sense. Americans, by and large, are exploited by a series of monopolies and rentier schemes.

    At the same time, however unequal the US is compared to France there is still a difference between being an exploited worker in the US and an exploited worker in Brazil. To put it simply: americans are now complaining that their treats (say, eating fast food) are becoming unaffordable. Going to McDonalds is now something that you do once in a while, for a birthday or another special event. That has always been the case in the global south. Anecdotal to be sure, but I’m upper middle class in Brazil and that was always the case for me.

    To give you numbers, the average credit card interest charged in the US seems to be around 20 to 30 percent. In Brazil its above 400%.

    The american elites might have given people crumbs in the form of, say, fuel and food subsidies and whatnot. They are still crumbs, and yet those crumbs would be ‘unaffordable’ if the US was a normal, unequal nation like those in the global south.








  • In addition, the US wasn’t even really trying to statebuild. That was their bullshit cover story.

    Definitely true. Even so, the interesting thing about the situation is that what little state-building the Americans did in Afghanistan was in itself disruptive of tribal society. And sowed the seeds for Afghanistan’s rapid collapse thereafter.

    For an example, imagine a mountain valley shared by a number of tribes. They use the valley in different ways at different times of the year. Informal agreements define ownership of said valley, even if in theory it belongs to a given group. Except now there’s a judge in Kabul and he’s made a ruling. The new Afghan state must enforce property rights. Whichever group does not own the deed to the valley suddenly finds itself fighting for its livelihood, probably against the people they had working agreements with. Multiply that times a million and that is how the taliban went from deeply unpopular in Afghanistan to the only option to oppose a careless government.


  • There is an important difference between the US’s campaigns in the middle east and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And that is the kind of societies and terrain we are talking about.

    The United States invaded, sought to occupy, and also fundamentally change tribal societies where things like justice were issued on a grassroots basis (moreso in Afghanistan than Iraq).

    Ukraine meanwhile is a post industrial society where social cohesion depends on the State. Simply put, Afghans can self mobilize for government and resistance. Ukrainians - like most people today - can only self mobilize as far as calling the local police force.

    If the Ukrainian State collapses, it will have no basis by which to mount an armed resistance (even more so given how said resistance would occur in the open steppe or in cities that Russia re-built from the ground up). While it was easy for the Americans to collapse the Iraqi or Afghan states, convincing everyone to accept the american occupation governments was something else entirely.

    Edit: this is why even early in the war a lot of people in Europe started talking about arming a resistance in Ukraine. It would have to be like the French Resistance in WW2. Something that relied on foreign state power for organization, direction, recruiting, and supplies. As opposed to, say, the northern vietnam army which benefitted from chinese supplies and soviet (later chinese) instructors, but which was self organized at the grassroots.





  • I’m not sure if ‘cut off from trade routes’ is the adequate descriptor here. Yeah, if Armenia remains isolated then I guess Iran can make more money. But I don’t think there are any north-south trade alternatives going through Iraq. Nor will India fully endorse a route that connects it to Central Asia through Pakistan rather than Iran. Ultimately, the NSTC goes through Caspian railworks and seaworks, it requires the Azeris who also want to do east-west trade through Zangezur with Turkey and the EU. So Iran has to play ball there as well.

    These are complex negotiations in a region that is gonna explode in connectivity, in every direction. I don’t think anyone is gonna be outright cut-off unless they are a failed state or isolate themselves. Hell, if Armenia could talk about east-west trade connections not long after losing the war I’m sure Iran will reach a settlement with the Russians.



  • Iran has its own priorities when it comes to blocking the Zangezur Corridor. It wants to make money from north-south transit fees. It doesn’t want a stronger Azerbaijan. It doesn’t want a more influential Turkey. To that effect it has a long standing relationship with Armenia. A Baku controlled Zangezur means in effect Armenia and Iran no longer share a border. Unfortunately for the iranians their only partners in this are the armenians, who have no realistic political pathway to move forward that doesn’t mean putting themselves at odds with everybody else in the region.

    At the end of the day Iran and Russia have been driven together by NATO aggression. Iran’s doctrine is defensive and I can’t imagine they won’t eventually fold on this issue.