I can’t disagree with anything you’ve said, but I still feel that China might choose the route that alienates the least G7/ EU member states.
Even if some users here feel it’s foolish for China to expect US “allies” to hold their own interests above Washington’s, China might not burn trade deals that could jeopardize relationships with Europe. China is still working on expanding trade with the EU at the same time it’s working with Russia and Iran.
China’s interests don’t 100% line up with its allies’ interests. The US on the other hand expects its enemies to be the enemies of their allies as well, but China knows that doesn’t need to be the case.
It could be that China tries to turn the trade war against the US by playing both sides, while the US will undoubtedly escalate. If it turns out to be the case, then this could further alienate Washington from their EU allies.
This paves the way for more Chinese trade and more expansion of the BRI into Europe, while simultaneously reducing Washington’s influence on trade in the region.
Tldr: China taking the nuclear stop trade with us option is a possibility, but they might just play the long game so they can end up on everybody’s (except US) good side 10-20 years down the line.
that’s what it’s all about baby