back in my map era, we’re ukrainemaxxing right now
Declarations of the imminent doom of Ukraine are a news megathread specialty, and this is not what I am doing here - mostly because I’m convinced that whenever we do so, the war extends another three months to spite us. Ukraine has been in an essentially apocalyptic crisis for over a year now after the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, unable to make any substantial progress and resigned to merely being a persistent nuisance (and arms market!) as NATO fights to the last Ukrainian. In this context, predicting a terminal point is difficult, as things seem to always be going so badly that it’s hard to understand how and why they fight on. In every way, Ukraine is a truly shattered country, barely held together by the sheer combined force of Western hegemony. And that hegemony is weakening.
I therefore won’t be giving any predictions of a timeframe for a Ukrainian defeat, but the coming presidency of Trump is a big question mark for the conflict. Trump has talked about how he wishes for the war to end and for a deal to be made with Putin, but Trump also tends to change his mind on an issue at least three or four times before actually making a decision, simply adopting the position of who talked to him last. And, of course, his ability to end the war might be curtailed by a military-industrial complex (and various intelligence agencies) that want to keep the money flowing.
The alignment of the US election with the accelerating rate of Russian gains is pretty interesting, with talk of both escalation and de-escalation coinciding - the former from Biden, and the latter from Trump. Russia very recently performed perhaps the single largest aerial attack of Ukraine of the entire war, striking targets across the whole country with missiles and drones from various platforms. In response, the US is talking about allowing Ukraine to hit long-range targets in Russia (but the strategic value of this, at this point, seems pretty minimal).
Additionally, Russia has made genuine progress in terms of land acquisition. We aren’t talking about endless and meaningless battles over empty fields anymore. Some of the big Ukrainian strongholds that we’ve been spending the last couple years speculating over - Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Orikhiv - are now being approached and entered by Russian forces. The map is actually changing now, though it’s hard to tell as Ukraine is so goddamn big.
Attrition has finally paid off for Russia. An entire generation of Ukrainians has been fed into the meat grinder. Recovery will take, at minimum, decades - more realistically, the country might be permanently ruined, until that global communist revolution comes around at least. And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
i signed up for another reddit account after getting a 2nd ip ban (doesn’t do shit btw) and was shocked by how much CIA propaganda there was on the frontpage even though i chose vietnam and standup comedy as things i wanted to see (i picked random topics)
Ali Mortada summarizing the attack in Tel Aviv. Bonus footage of some settler getting run over by another settler:
https://xcancel.com/aliimortada/status/1858840797275193550Telesur Aleida Guevara expresó preocupación por reciente actitud de Lula hacia Venezuela
On Trump and Brazil vs Venezuela
What about the change of government in the United States, with the Democrats leaving and the Republicans returning to power? Will anything change for Cubans?
We say it’s the same dog with a different leash. The thing is, this man [Donald Trump] is crazy. We don’t know what he can do. Maybe he’ll come out saying that, since he’s a businessman, he wants to do business with Cuba, but who knows? Because that’s how this man is – he’s unpredictable. But in any case, it’s a danger, a serious danger, not only for Cuba, but for humanity, since that country [the United States] has destructive power and now that power will be in the hands of a man who doesn’t think, which can be very dangerous.
Brazil’s position after the presidential elections in Venezuela has been questioned by popular movements here in Brazil and in Latin America, because it questions the security of the electoral process. How do you assess this position?
It only benefits the enemy. It makes me very sad. I’m really ashamed that Lula has fallen into this situation. Firstly, because he has just acknowledged that he doesn’t even have the right to express an opinion on another country’s problems, because he wouldn’t want us, or any other country in the world, to express an opinion on Brazil. So, if you don’t like a behavior, how can you do that to someone else? It’s a basic principle of coexistence – pure and simple. They may have their own criteria and way of seeing the world, which must be respected. I don’t have anything to say about that. However, you have to respect them. You have to learn to respect your neighbors, even if you don’t like them. For example, we [Cubans] want to have relations with the United States, even though we have nothing to do with their government. We can make an effort and show solidarity. Respect other countries, as long as they respect us, because that’s a mutual principle. If you want respect, you have to learn to respect. It’s as simple as that.
That’s why it hurts so much. Brazil’s position regarding BRICS also hurts, because the country refuses to allow Venezuela to join the group. This is unprecedented. Brazil is simply playing into the hands of the United States of America, the enemy of all our peoples. Lula isn’t an ordinary president; he is a president who comes from grassroots movements, someone who comes from trade union struggles. So, Lula has to know what he’s doing. This is very painful for us, I mean it. It hurts us deeply and Lula’s attitude towards Venezuela disappointed us.
The Hīkoi mō te Tiriti arrived in Wellington NZ today. The haka went viral the other day, but this is the bigger story of the public mobilisation against the bill introduced by our right-wing, reactionary, ACT party.
And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.
Weapons grade copium: EU to demand technology transfers from Chinese companies
Brussels is planning to force Chinese companies to transfer intellectual property to European businesses in return for EU subsidies as part of a tougher trade regime for clean technologies. New criteria requiring Chinese businesses to have factories in Europe and share technological knowhow will be introduced when Brussels invites bids for €1bn of grants to develop batteries in December, according to two senior EU officials. The pilot could be rolled out to other EU subsidy schemes, they said. The requirements, while at much smaller scale, echo China’s own regime, which pressures foreign companies into sharing their intellectual property in exchange for access to the Chinese market. The criteria could be subject to change ahead of the tender, officials said. The plans represent part of a hardening stance from Europe towards China as it seeks to protect companies in the bloc — subject to strict environmental regulations — from being undercut by cheap and more polluting imports.
The latest TrueAnon episode with Seth harp on Afghanistan opium is very worth listening to. It covers the role of the Taliban and of the US in world opium production and distribution. Apparently, the 2000s saw the amount of opium production in Afghanistan increase by a factor of 50x or so, to the point that world supply increased by 10-20x. Absolutely staggering hearing Seth lay out the connection between invasion, waste of lives and money, in service of turning a country into a narco state. Just brutal.
On the ground Bomb Cyclone reporting:
Haven’t seen lightning like this since I was in the midwest during tornado season. Some of these flashes are like a silent prolonged blue glare (is this ball lightning or something else?) and some are more loud orangey and explosive. I wish I could be lightning. ☹️
Some combat footage for today from the special military operation.
Russian forces liberated the Donetsk People’s Republic village of Novaya Ilyinka, north of the Kiev-occupied DPR city of Kurakhovo: https://s5.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/novaya_ilyinka.mp4?_=1
A Russian drone destroyed another US-supplied “Stryker” armored personnel carrier in Kursk oblast (18+): https://news-pravda.com/world/2024/11/19/864305.html
Russian forces destroyed more German-built Leopard tanks near Kurakhovo: https://news-pravda.com/world/2024/11/19/864112.html
Odessans started protesting against the Kiev regime due to being without power for almost three days: https://news-pravda.com/world/2024/11/19/864592.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-picks-dr-oz-serve-cms-administrator-2024-11-19/
Dr. Oz to ru(I)n Medicare and Medicaid
Large scale Ukrainian drone attack against Russia is currently underway, over 40 drones reported to be shot down. Over 30 were over Bryansk, the oblast that Ukraine used ATACMS against last night/early morning. So far only Ukrainian UAVs. If Ukraine launches ATACMS as part of these attacks, it could get bad, but I don’t think the Ukrainians are that suicidal…
Twitter Source and the same source on xcancel.
This is the same source that correctly reported on Russia’s attack on Ukrainian electrical infrastructure as it it happened a few days ago.
There was some news a couple of days ago of China issuing 2 billion in USD denominated sovereign bonds that surprisingly was treated negatively or as some capitulation to the USD. I feel like this is quite different
I see this as creating a small triangular financing mechanism to help offload from the USD collectively with the central fulcrum being a facilitation of $ for ¥ swaps. The end result is global south nations pay down USD denominated liabilities & export resources to China earning RMB.
Simply put Gulf (and others) countries have too many dollars, China sells them these bonds, China uses these dollars to fund poor countries (investments, imports whatever), Poor countries use dollars to pay debt, Poor countries and gulf countries sell their natural resources to China in yuan then China sells its technology to these countries in yuan. Saudi flushes out $, China gains real resources, poor countries less poor, net negative for the volume of $ being outside of US borders. Meanwhile Chinese sovereign bond buyers are also using these bonds as collateral for Chinese tech & infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia and their respective home countries. For China it also represents a very slow conversion of excess USD and their own trade surpluses into physical commodities while creating demand for their own currency. These commodities will continue to rise in USD prices while falling in RMB prices. They will have to repay these bonds upon maturity eventualy but it will be with cheaper dollars as commodities reprice higher in tighter supply-constrained markets. So even in the long term there is another net loss of USD.
Another angle is that many coutries are facing double digit borrowing costs in USDs to rollover or service USD debts. China can stabilise these at rates almost identical to US Treasury rates , these bonds were issued at just 1 base point over UST! after all. Another net negative effect on dollar circulation and accumulation. It basicaly tries to flip the Dollar Milkshake Theory to its head. China could have used its UST for this without all this roundabout thing, sure. But China is maintaining/reducing its UST reserves slowly because it doesnt want to blow up the global financial enviroment and insert a ton of volatility . But the needs of many countries for USD liquidity are way higher than China’s rate of liquidation . This bridges that gap and allows China to do smth
I forgot I was on Hexbear for a moment and was very confused as to why I was reading a reasonable breakdown of the situation in Ukraine.
