After 15 months of genocide - and resistance to it - the Israeli regime realized that they could not win a military victory against Hamas, and were forced to sign a humiliating ceasefire in order to get their hostages returned.
With much of Syria under the control of Al-Qaeda, and an increasing level of covert infiltration into Lebanon, the crisis in the Middle East is not over, and we may still be in its beginning stages, as the center of hegemony continues its gradual shift away from the United States. Their navy, once considered the best in the world, is likely also not very happy about their ships and aircraft carriers being forced to retreat by Yemen, one of the poorest countries; and all eyes are on Iran, who has, over the last year and a half, demonstrated a newfound confidence and strength to directly strike Israel.
The recovery for Gaza will take, at a minimum, decades; it could indeed never fully recovery to even how it was before, considering it is not in Israel’s interests to see their concentration camps recover. But Hamas has proven to be steadfast and the tunnel network has proven its resilience, despite facing some of the most powerful conventional bombing in history. This shows that Palestine’s liberation is a when, not an if; and hopefully a much sooner “when” than expected before October 7th.
Last week’s thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
The next 4 years are going to be bad under Trump for leftists. Way worse than what you’ll get from Biden.
Nobody in this admin knows what a Marxist is lmao your perspective on internal American politics is truly bad
A Marxist is someone they don’t like e.g. minorities.
No, it’s the Democrats, come on. Are you really an America watcher? It’s Nancy Pelosi, it’s AOC, it’s Hillary Clinton.
Yes, someone they don’t like.
No, it’s not “someone they don’t like” it’s specifically the Democrats.
Yeah sorry I like to listen to everyone’s opinion but still don’t buy it for a second that the outrage against “Marxist DEI” is reserved for the Democrats. They’re racist, homophobic and transphobic agenda designed to hurt minorities.
there isnt even a “left” yet worth speaking of in the US, this is just pandering to his chud audience and meant to own the radlibs. is this another bit you’re doing where you’re refusing to use a tone tag?
xiaohongshu spent the bulk of election season saying Biden had it in the bag
never once grappling with all the Americans telling them they were extremely wrong
due respect, all I can say is we all have our blind spots, myself included
to be honest I get that uneasy feeling about their global economic perspective when I see their confidently wrong takes on internal American politics, the same way I do when I read a journalist I’ve thought was pretty savvy writing about something I am professionally familiar with and completely fucking it up
I need to read Superimperialism, then I might have enough context for their pessimism but I haven’t done the investigation
Pessimism? They thought Harris would win and the Republicans had been abandoned by the bourgeoisie! As much as I hate the Dems that’s got to be some measure of optimism, surely.
oh I guess I was thinking about their grumpiness about the future of China (and to a lesser extent Russia)
It’s okay to be suspicious about MMT
We’ll see what happens in the midterms and in 2028. Far too early to say who’s having the last laugh. I suspect the Dems will make a come back sooner than most think.
Well yeah, that is the way the American political see-saw works. Since neither party actually delivers the outcomes voters want (since doing that would require spending money on something outside propping up the financial sector), American voters become disillusioned with whatever party they voted for and either don’t vote or cross party lines.
The Democrats will probably get a swing of some progressives that reconsidered their non-voting, but unlikely more than a slim majority in the House.
Nah XHS goes off the rails when it comes to Biden and the dems. Arguing for a mao style United front with democrats in the face of fascism in one comment while acknowledging the dems have helped the right crush the left at every turn in another. Entirely incomprehensible
yes im well aware but xhs randomly does bits like this too and i can never tell when it’s a bit, like this kind of comment was just like ones made on the simulatedliberalism account if you remember that account
Yeah I’ve run into those before. This one reeks though, so I hope it’s a bit
It’s not a bit. I know many people disagree with me on this, and that’s fine, but I have made it known since before the election that a Trump presidency is going to be worse, far worse, especially for the minorities and our comrades in America.
I still think appeasing to the Democrats while surviving on humiliation, secretly building the strength while delaying overt fascism, is a more viable strategy, but apparently people don’t like it because strategic alliance with the Democrats means you’re also supporting genocide and 100% behind the Democrats’ policies. It’s very black and white thinking.
But more than that, Trump is unstable. Biden is evil, sure, but there is certainty in his policies. You cannot even try to guess what Trump is trying to do - annex Greenland? Canada? Are those even serious proposals? When you cannot read your opponent’s mind, or when rationality has been thrown out of window, the world becomes more unstable. The likelihood of a global war exponentially increases because countries can no longer predict a stable course or understand what their opponent wants.
Yes.
The US is accepting that it can not beat China as things are. The mindset is shifting from that to “get bigger and stronger to beat it later”.
The issue is that the incoming administration are morons. Unlike the capable ghouls of the past who understood the hidden nature of the american empire, obfuscated behind enough layers for people not to immediately recognise it. The current crop of ghouls are terminally map-brained like a paradox game player. If it’s not painted with USA on the map, it’s not part of the US’ tendrils of power.
Because of this thinking, they see painting the map in their colour as increasing the power of the US. Even if it means absorbing places that are already within their power anyway.
In practice this means they seek to absorb those least likely to fight back. And that happens to be places already within US power. Allies and Partners.
Europe is the most likely victim of the US in the current mindset. I suspect detente with China and a pivot to fucking over the currently weak Europe as much as possible.
Yes and this is what makes a Trump presidency so scary.
You’re dealing with a guy who carries a bomb into a room threatening to blow the entire room up, and somehow thinks he’s invincible to the blast. He can no longer be reasoned with - anything you say, might be taken the wrong way and there he goes pushing the button.
The world is turning highly volatile because you can no longer tell America to “calm down, don’t blow up the room just yet, let’s talk it out and see if we can give you what you want without killing all of us”.
The fact that Trump is coming up with all these outrageous proposals even against his own allies and leaving everyone guessing greatly increases the likelihood of a diplomatic breaking point.
This is good. U.S. power, as much as is concentrated in military power, mostly relies on people believing they won’t actually blow up the bomb (because every single president has been the guy in the room with a bomb, some just don’t make clear threats). If they believe he will actually blow up the bomb, they may actually be compelled to do something.
Look let’s be real, how much “marxism, diversity, and inclusion” was really taking place in the federal government under Biden in the first place
It’s not like it was a bastion of marxism under Biden nor under Trump’s first term
Things were only ever going to get worse. Without a true force of opposition, another Biden/Harris presidency could have only delayed it.
The Democrats could have gone full socdem, and fascism would still be inevitable (see Europe).
One positive note, is that there will almost certainly be more leftists when all is said and done. Leftists are forged in a kiln of material hardship that these idiots will unintentionally cause.
I highly doubt that. Mussolini and Hitler crushed very strong militant communist movements back then, while the liberals cheered on.
In fact, you can say that the liberals deliberately allowed the fascists to do the dirty work for them to clean up the threat to the ruling bourgeois class when capitalism was in crisis, and the same can be said of the Democrats today in letting Trump kill the left wing movements for them.
Without any semblance of a properly organized left wing movement in America, the majority will fold to fascism. After all, if climate change is going to make all of our lives worse, why should I care for the people from other countries? If the world is going to get worse, I’d rather the others suffer worse for it than myself. That’s what they’re going to think. That’s what people who no longer see any positive change will think. There is no left in America to give people hope.
This is how Americans have always thought and no amount of leftist organizing attempts can change that. It didn’t change when we actually had a leftist movement and a huge leftist sentiment, it’s definitely not happening in the gooner treatlerite era. Your examples of Italy and Germany are only good for showing how there is no possibility for a left to emerge in the US. In places that had strong militant organizing, they failed due to their labor aristocracy choosing to side with capitalists, among other things. The US is more firmly in that position than Italy or Germany were, there is no way out but through.
There seems to be a sentiment that just because exploitation exists, that because we know about Marxism, that somehow there must be the conditions to organize the oppressed and have a revolution in every place. This clearly isn’t true, some places just burn, and all you can organize is a chance at survival and rebuilding in the aftermath.
they’re not even totally relevant or necessary to point to as an example, the american communist movement in the 20th century perhaps wasnt as militant (although due to america being what it is, probably still decently armed) and the 4th reich crushed it all the same during the red scares, although it was in an even stronger position so it was just able to do it in a cleaner way (i.e. mass life imprisonment and more precise assassinations)
There isn’t a militant communist movement to crush though, so what are they going to do? Arrest every radlib with a hammer and sickle in their X bio?
I don’t think it will break along traditionally leftist/fascist lines in the US anyway. It’ll just end up being a violent and chaotic mass insurrection at some point like BLM in 2020 x 10.
e: I should say I don’t disagree with you that we’re headed for even more fascism, but it’ll be different than we expect.